WESTERN Nigeria has always been a source of problem to Nigerian politics, the scene of the most instructive dramas, with far-reaching implications for the larger Nigerian polity. Last Saturday's National Assembly elections gave the impression that this year's elections may not be different. According to the Comet newspaper, what happened in the South West was in the form of an "earthquake" hitting the region. Politics in the West has always been dominated by a strain between isolationism and liberalism, with the forces on both sides seeking such supremacy in elections which invariably ends in violence, or such prolonged animosity that ends up as a national dilemma with tragic consequences. Described simply, the isolationists are the politicians who insist, and they have always done so since independence, that the Western region must be preserved politically for the Yoruba ideology and interest, as a means of negotiating with the rest of Nigeria. The import then, is that only a political party that is almost puristically Yoruba in inspiration and orientation can be allowed to win in Yorubaland.

The liberalists consist of the Yoruba who argue that the best way for Yoruba people to gain advantages in Nigeria is for them to reach out to other ethnic groups by playing mainstream politics. The aim is to show that the average Yoruba man does not consider himself a special being but a member of a larger Nigerian community with shared goals and aspirations. This is demonstrated in form of identification with a national party by sections of the Yoruba electorate. It is meant to dispel established prejudices that the Yoruba are arrogant and contemptuous. In every election in Yorubaland since 1952, these two forces have always sought to challenge each other, and each time that they did so, Nigeria paid a heavy price for it. Which is why I think that the so-called "earthquake" that hit Yorubaland last Saturday, ought to be investigated in terms of its historical and contemporary implications. Also, as a means of understanding some of the strains that may well determine the fortunes of the present process in either the short or long term.

In the fifties, Yorubaland was the theatre of the main politics that led to the factionalisation of Nigerian politics and the introduction of tribal politics. During the legislative council elections between Ernest Ikoli and Samuel Akinsanya (who later became the Odemo of Isara), the Action Group led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo and the NCNC led by Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe had managed to turn the whole matter into an ethnic one. Dr. Azikiwe and the NCNC supported Akinsanya and the Action Group rooted for Ernest Ikoli. Zik's West African Pilot did not help matters by promoting ethnic sentiments. But perhaps the more critical incident was the defeat of Azikiwe in the Western House of assembly in 1952. Zik had lived all his life in Lagos; he was an international figure, orator and the most successful newspaper man of his time as publisher of the vastly influential West African Pilot. He also saw himself as a Lagosian. He had dreams of ruling the Western region. But when the Western House of Assembly convened in 1952, key Yoruba supporters of the NCNC, on whose loyalty Zik was depending crossed the carpet to the Action Group and sealed his ambition. He also could not make it to the Federal House of Representatives, because the Action Group forces shut him out. Zik could not take the humiliation to stay on as Leader of the Opposition in the Western House of Assembly. He left the West and returned to the East where he had to mobilise support to get rid of Eyo Ita, a non-Ibo from his position as Leader of Government Business in the Eastern House of Assembly.

For sure, this was not the very beginning of tribalism in Nigerian politics, indeed, in the course of the constitutional conferences preceding independence, tribal differences among the Nigerians were already becoming pronounced. But what happened was that the events in the Western region between 1950 and 1959 changed the colour of Nigerian politics in a rather negative and regrettable manner, and dealt a blow to the notion of national unity. By 1959, Yoruba politics was already divided between those who were die-hard loyalists of the Action Group and the Egbe Omo Oduduwa and other Yorubas who associated with other political parties such as the Northern People's Congress and the NCNC. In due course, a number of aggrieved Yoruba had in fact formed the Egbe Omo Olofin, through which they sought to prove that they were no less Yoruba for supporting another political party other than the Action Group which held sway in Yorubaland. Hell broke loose in 1962 with the crisis between supporters of Samuel Ladoke Akintola and Chief Obafemi Awolowo in the Western Region. Akintola and his supporters were accused of treachery for seeking to break out of the traditional Yoruba fold. By 1964, the West was up in flames. Houses were burnt. Lives were lost. It is already a matter of public record that the collapse of the Western region hastened the eventual collapse of the First Republic.

Again, during the Second republic, the now old animosity between the inclusive Yoruba and the federalists was played out in the confrontation between the National Party of Nigeria and its supporters and the Unity Party of Nigeria led by Chief Obafemi Awolowo. In 1983, events reached a head in Ondo state as the people rioted over the results of the elections in that state which had awarded victory in the gubernatorial election to the NPN candidate, Chief Akin Omoboriowo. Nigeria did not recover from the mayhem that followed. The military intervened. We were back to the "wild wild west" again in 1993. The Yoruba were at the centre of the struggle against the annulment of the June 12 Presidential election. One of them, Chief MKO Abiola was the symbol of the struggle. Although the protest had started as a national pro-democracy effort, it was eventually hijacked by the Yoruba who saw in June 12 an opportunity to re-negotiate their place in Nigeria.

At this point, Yoruba persons who made the mistake of joining the outsiders, were ostracised and demonised, and it is on record that they have not been forgiven nor have they recovered from the fatwa of the elders. In 1999, the same pattern resurfaced. With the Afenifere now commanding Yoruba politics and leading the people in a chosen direction, the Alliance for Democracy was founded and promoted as the Yoruba party. Every Yoruba man or woman was required to protect Yorubaland from the rest of Nigeria by installing an AD government in all Yoruba states. Whereas Olusegun Obasanjo, a Yoruba was the Presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, the Afenifere rejected him. In fact, at the end of the day, Obasanjo could not score up to 25 per cent of total votes cast in any of the South Western states. He lost in his own ward in Abeokuta. Now, in 2003, will the West be wild again? Will the rest of Nigeria be dragged into yet another political crisis erupting from the West?

These questions are important for two reasons. One, the elections held last Saturday would mark the first time that the main Yoruba party will lose elections in its own region on such massive scale that bespeaks widespread rejection by the people. Two, it is the first time that such a thing would happen and many Yorubas will actually be attempting to rationalise it. With the PDP sweeping the polls in the South West, it may be said that the same force, the pro-federal Akintola side of Yoruba politics has succeeded for once in outsmarting the local power elite. What is curious is that whereas in the past, it was only a group of candidates who challenged the Yoruba mainstream, this time around, the challenge seems to be widespread and audacious. I am willing to bet that the battle has only just begun and this Saturday and after, may prove crucial as Nigeria's days of reckoning. The fight between the two forces in Yoruba politics has never been peaceful. At the centre of this crisis is the Afenifere. I have heard the view being expressed that the voting pattern in the South West is a protest against the Afenifere. It should be remembered for example, that in every state that Afenifere endorsed a governor and imposed candidates, the AD lost woefully. In Lagos, the Afenifere disowned Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and even got one of their own - Alhaji Ganiyu Dawodu to stop Tinubu from winning, and yet it is in Lagos that the AD got overwhelming support from the electorate. It is also curious that whereas the Afenifere has dismissed the outcome of the elections as a "monumental fraud", the AD national Executive says it is pleased with the results. So, we are back to that old question about the locus standi of Afenifere in the politics of the AD. If Chief Bola Ige were alive, he would by now be having a good laugh.

There is a sense in which it may be said that he laid the foundation for what has now happened in Yoruba politics. Following his humiliation by the Afenifere leaders in 1999 when they refused to elect him as Presidential flagbearer of the AD, Chief Bola Ige began a systematic undermining of the AD. His main constituency lay with the youths. He began to sow seeds of doubt about the right of a chosen few to dictate the direction of Yoruba politics. He wanted to take Yoruba politics to the centre. And he demonstrated his preference by joining Obasanjo's government. Although he remained in AD/Afenifere, it was obvious that he was fighting from within. Many of the PDP candidates that have now won in the South West were actually AD/Afenifere members who defected to the PDP, and who had established themselves among the grassroots.

What happened last Saturday therefore is part of the implosion of the AD from within. The issue is not about the performance of the party in the various states, in fact the AD would seem to have done well in terms of performance, but this is more about the ideological battle within the party, with the PDP stealing the advantage. I have heard the view expressed that the Yoruba voter made a mistake in voting for the PDP because the AD had adopted Obasanjo as Presidential candidate. Excuse me, is that why Omisore had to win in Esa-Oke, Bola Ige's home-town? It has also been argued that the South West AD was arrogant and complacent. This is entirely beside the point. The Action Group/UPN were always over-confident when it came to Yoruba politics, and that didn't break that party's hold in the South West.

The Afenifere may be shaken and divided, but I am convinced that they are still ideologically, the owners of the ground. There has been so much triumphalism within the PDP about how Obasanjo has finally "captured" the South West. But the question that would soon have to be asked is: at what cost? Balewa was similarly confident that he had captured the West. The NPN strategists were convinced that nothing would happen. Those who annulled the June 12 election overlooked the rather complex and mystical nature of Yoruba politics. Is this the end of Awoism in Yoruba politics? Even if it is, would it be the beginning of Obasanjoism? I don't think so. If the PDP steam-rolls Yorubaland in this election because Obasanjo must look good, then what will happen in 2007 when a non-Yoruba is Presidential candidate? Whatever happens, Yoruba politics is back to its old patterns, the end of which we may not now know. It is not over yet with the Afenifere/AD even if they have been shown to be poor political strategists. As the politicians go to war tomorrow, let them remember Marcus Cicero: "salus populi est suprema lex" ("the good of the people is the supreme law").