Friday, March 30, 2007

World leaders move to end Obasanjo, Atiku feud
From Laolu Akande, New York

SOME distinguished world leaders are currently working hard to resolve the bitter feud between President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Atiku Abubakar. One of the options being considered is for the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to seek peace between the two leaders before the elections next month.

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As there are increasing concerns about the holding of the elections, there are also rising fears in international circles about the fate of the country if the elections turn out to be unfair and lacking in credibility.

Among those who are keen on resolving the issue are former leaders such as prime ministers, presidents, cabinet ministers, international philanthropists, business and investment tycoons and diplomats, many of whom believe that the attempt to exclude Abubakar from the electoral process could be bad for the transition process.

Although no formal steps have been taken yet, the International Crisis Group (ICG), a global think-tank that draws its board and staff from across the world and is based mainly in the United States (U.S.) and Europe, are said to be taking the lead in ensuring the resolution of the dispute in Nigeria's presidency.

The ICG, which on Wednesday afternoon released a report on the Nigerian political crisis ahead of next month's election is regarded highly world-wide and was recently described by former U.S. President Bill Clinton as the conscience of the global community.

In its detailed report entitled: "Nigeria's Elections: Avoiding a political crisis," the group specifically mentioned the need for the AU to get involved in resolving the political misunderstanding between Obasanjo and Abubakar.

ICG report called on the President to pursue immediate resolution of differences with Abubakar by respecting court judgments, supporting due constitutional process and accepting joint mediation by the AU and ECOWAS to resolve the dispute and avoid a post-electoral political crisis.

Sources hinted that such offers might have been informally extended to both Obasanjo and Abubakar already with the President refusing to give any commitment. Another source explained that previous attempts at resolving the dispute failed partly because of a lack of confidence as to the potential political perception of either party.

The ICG is made up of some very distinguished international personalities, including a former United Kingdom (UK) cabinet member, former Lord Pattens of Barnes who is its chairman. Lord Barnes is also a UK Governor of Hong Kong and currently Chancellor of Oxford and Newcastle Universities in the UK.

Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering, a powerful American diplomat and former U.S. envoy to several countries including Nigeria is the co-chair of ICG. Its board members include multi-millionaire U.S. philanthropist and Chairman of Open Society George Soros, who is known to be supportive of the Obasanjo cabinet's reform agenda.

ICG is calling on both the AU and ECOWAS to appoint a joint committee "of wise men composed of former African heads of state to mediate feud and engage actively with all election stakeholders to resolve disputes consensually and prevent a post-electoral crisis."

The group observed that President Obasanjo and the PDP must be told that "the transparency of the electoral process, the credibility of its results and the legitimacy of the new government will strongly affect Nigeria's international standing as well as the quality of bilateral relations and economic co-operation," in the post 2007 election period.

A recommendation was also sent to the Commonwealth member countries, the European Union (EU) and the U.S. to encourage "the Nigerian government to facilitate full access to international monitors and observers as a means of ensuring transparency and accountability in the electoral process."

Commenting on ICG earlier this month, Clinton said: "In the most troubled corners of the world, (the International) Crisis Group has been the eyes, the ears, and the conscience of the global community. Its mix of field-based analysis, well-reasoned policy recommendations, and high-level advocacy is a winning combination."

In its report on Nigeria, the Group said Nigeria's democracy faces "a crucial test," with the imminent presidential, national assembly and state gubernatorial and assembly elections coming next month.

It noted that success would offer the country the first opportunity to achieve a genuine constitutional succession from one civilian administration to another since independence in 1960, thus consolidating democracy."

The group added, however, that "failure could provoke violent rejection of the results by wide sections of the populace, denial of legitimacy and authority to the new government, intensification of the insurgency in the Niger Delta and its possible extension to other areas, with potential for wider West African destabilisation."

On the electoral process, the group said: "The preparatory phases have indicated failings in terms of basic fairness for the opposition, transparency and respect for the rule of law."

The report warned that "unless stakeholders make urgent efforts to rescue the credibility of the process, Nigeria's already serious internal instability could be fatally aggravated."

Indicting the Federal Government over its role in what might be a flawed election, the Group's report said: "The first threat to the process is President Olusegun Obasanjo's attempts to impose a successor by excluding strong candidates such as Vice President Atiku Abubakar, through intimidation, judicial proceedings and politically-motivated corruption charges. His effort to hold on to power has antagonised the political establishment and divided leaders of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who counted on an open succession contest to satisfy their ambitions. The resulting frustrations propelled establishment heavyweights into opposition and increased the ferocity of a campaign marred by violence, bribery and corruption."

The report added: "More worrying for electoral credibility is Obasanjo's tight leash on the finances of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), his direct influence on senior officials in charge of administering the process, the use of security services to intimidate opposition and the doubts raised over the validity of the voters registration exercise. There is a high risk the President, who has declared the election a 'do-or-die affair for the PDP', will try to obtain a victory through intimidation and large-scale rigging, resulting in a violent challenge of the results by the opposition. If the PDP loses, he could be tempted to suspend the constitution."

In its recommendations, the ICG has this to say: To President Olusegun Obasanjo:

• "pursue immediate resolution of differences with Vice President Atiku Abubakar, by respecting court judgments, supporting due constitutional process and accepting joint mediation by the African Union (AU) and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to resolve the dispute and avoid a post-electoral political crisis;

• ensure timely release of funds to INEC and respect its independence; and

• direct the security agencies to maintain neutrality between all parties and candidates, conduct themselves with the highest standards of professionalism and allow all citizens to freely exercise their rights to vote."

  It also advised the judiciary to:

• "ensure constitutional provisions are applied impartially and consistently so as to achieve speedy and fair justice through the remaining stages of the electoral process; and

• prepare to adjudicate potential electoral disputes within the time constraints set by the constitution."

  From the Independent National Electoral Commission, ICG is seeking:

• "greater transparency in relations with other election stakeholders by convening national, state and local level consultations with parties, security agencies, civil society and national and international election observers and monitors, to disseminate information, discuss problems, better co-ordinate activities and mitigate risks of violence."

  It also enjoined it to:

• "facilitate effective domestic and international observance and monitoring throughout the country, including by providing unlimited access to polling stations and counting centres and arranging special security for foreign observers and monitors in the Niger Delta;

• "end impunity for electoral malfeasance by co-operating closely with security agencies to prosecute persons accused of committing such offences;

• "monitor and publicise the election finances of candidates and parties to ensure they conform to the Electoral Act 2006; and

• "intensify voter education, including through mass and community-level media, particularly in the last few days before the elections.

  In conclusion, the ICG asked the Commonwealth, the European Union and the American government to "encourage the Nigerian government to facilitate full access to international monitors and observes as a means of ensuring transparency and accountability in he electoral process."