In June 2006, I delivered the keynote address at the Anambra Development Summit, organised by Anambra League of Professionals entitled “Anambra 2030: Envisioning the African Dubai, Taiwan and Silicon Valley”. In view of its currency as we debate the road ahead for Anambra and Nigeria, I present an abridged version below.
Anambra is a paradox of sorts, wrapped in contradictions. Anambra has all it takes to be a modern and prosperous state, and some have argued that Anambra is well positioned to be Africa’s Taiwan, Singapore or Dubai. But it has remained a sleeping giant: a state mired in a crisis of development with several unresolved contradictions. There is a total disconnect between our potential and outcomes, between our individual talents/endowments and our collective accomplishments. As individuals and communities, we have succeeded, but as a state or a people, we are not so successful.
Robust statistics on the major trends and features of Anambra are not encouraging enough. Some evidence however leads us to draw some conclusions about the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the state.
We do not have reliable data on the size of Anambra’s GDP, but casual evidence suggests that it is the richest state in the Southeast, followed by Abia state. If we use the number of commercial bank branches in a state as a pointer to the level of economic activities, then Anambra is fourth in Nigeria (after Lagos, Rivers and Abuja). It is certainly one of the most richly endowed states in terms of human capital in Nigeria.
Anambra’s geography is a mixed grill: its location is superb and is a critical factor in defining Anambra’s comparative advantage. Bounded by six states (Delta, Kogi, Abia, Imo, Rivers and Enugu), Anambra is the gateway state into the East and South-South States. This locational advantage points to its potential to be the major commercial hub. The state also has its share of natural resources especially oil, iron ore, natural gas, kaolin, clay, etc and these remain largely untapped. Several rivers adorn the state, with great potential for agriculture around Omambala cultural area and Ogbaru and Orumba local government areas. An enduring challenge for the state is the ravaging erosion (with over 500 erosion gullies already identified in the state).
Onitsha is clearly the largest market in West Africa (some even say in Africa) and is a unique city in which almost every building/house is part of the market. Onitsha is also the largest city in the Southeast, and there is hardly any Igbo man who does not have a relation living in Onitsha.
What about Nnewi? What has happened to the momentum of the 1980s and 1990s towards becoming the Taiwan or Japan of Africa? Braughtigam had once described Nnewi in an article entitled “Industrializing in spite of the State” as the Taiwan of Africa. Today, another array of dead capital litters Nnewi and environs - comatose industries. Again, the failure of Nnewi to sustain the momentum points to the consequences of failure to plan.
The demographics of Anambra have two major defects which affect its capacity to develop. The first is the separation of the educated elite from the traders; and the second is the continued drain of the best brains from the state into other parts of the world. Right from independence, the Southeast has had the unfortunate dichotomy between the educated elite (residing mostly at Nsukka and Enugu) on the one hand, and the traders (residing mostly in Onitsha and Aba). There has been little or no interaction between the two groups, who also saw themselves as two parallel lines.
For the University elite, the gown has never met with the town as they derided the ‘illiterate’ traders. The traders on the other hand looked down on the ‘poor’ intellectuals who can only ‘blow grammar’ and take minutes during meetings of kinsfolk but cannot measure up during community fund-raising ceremonies. The two largest cities in the Southeast have therefore been left to be run by people whose major competence is not the generation of ideas. Those who ought to know decided to hide away at Nsukka and Enugu for fear of being ‘insulted or rubbished’ by the traders. This dichotomy has left Anambra worse-off.
Toward Anambra 2030 Vision: Anambrians must be fully mobilized to share in the vision for sustainability. Another critical element of the visioning process is benchmarking: if you stop benchmarking to the highest standards and continuously innovating to attain the goals, you stop growing. At the earliest stages of development, many societies start their visioning through imitation. That is the least that we should do. Who do we want to look like? What must we do to achieve the result? What are the key benchmarks, timelines, etc?
Anambra could by 2020 be the No.1 state in terms of economic and social development in Nigeria, and by 2030 become the Dubai, Taiwan and Silicon Valley of Africa. From Anambra’s locational advantage, resource endowments, human capital, and initial conditions, it can be moulded to look like a composite of the three cities. Anambra, as a gateway state to the East, South-South and the North can easily become the HUB.
Furthermore, when we recall the ‘Flying geese’ model of the newly industrializing countries of East Asia, Anambra readily comes to mind. As frontline traders in Nigeria with decades of partnerships with Asia (China, India, Singapore, the Middle East, and Europe), there is ample opportunity to leapfrog the industrialization ladder through joint venture partnerships with their former trading partners. With the small landmass, Anambra can be one large industrial park. Nnewi had earlier taken off with a lot of expectations from the international community as the emerging Taiwan of Africa. We must revive that dream. I can see the skyline along the banks of River Niger. I can see Anambra as Nigeria’s hub for commerce, supplying the needs of our rich neighbors in the Niger Delta region and the rest of Nigeria (a new Dubai). Awka is the ancient home of Igbo technology (technuzu).
A Plan: With a clear vision of our destination, we need a plan to reach there. It is time to move beyond partisan politics into developmental politics. We must mobilize the best minds from Anambra to draw up a 20-Year Development Plan (2010- 2030). Membership should be drawn from Anambra professionals, representatives of major political parties, churches, NGOs, organized private sector, civil society organizations, labour unions, the academia, traditional rulers, etc. It should be Anambra’s Plan, and we hope every successive government will sustain the key planks of the plan. The ‘Anambra 2030’ should be the long-term plan. To be Anambra’s Plan, its preparation must be participatory and involve extensive consultations and public debate.
Planning without Statistics?: Basic statistics are lacking. As the common saying goes, if you can’t measure it, you can’t control it. How many people are we planning for; what are the demographics? What is the size of Anambra’s GDP and its composition? What is the level of unemployment? How do we measure the impact of various Government programs and projects on poverty, employment and welfare generally? I don’t know of any state with a reliable State Statistical Agency (SSA): Is Anambra going to be the first- perhaps working in collaboration with the National Bureau of Statistics?
Strategic Thrust: Private sector-led Devt.: Anambra State cannot be developed by the government, it must be developed by the people. This sounds tautological because whatever there is currently in Anambra today is the product of private and community efforts. Anambra has tried to move forward in spite of the state. The challenge is to mainstream the strategy of a private sector-led development in a better-organized fashion, with Government providing leadership and vision. The principal role of the government is to facilitate the process by providing the enabling environment. Let us be realistic: even if the State Government wants to play a dominant role, it just cannot.
A Master Plan for the State: We urgently need to recover whatever is left of Onitsha, Nnewi, and Awka, and the entire state through a Master Plan which must be faithfully implemented. These cities must have developed ‘city centres’, green landscape, recreational and social infrastructure, sewage and waste disposal structure, physical infrastructure, five star hotels, etc. There is no reason why Anambra cannot be designed to be another Dubai. With a Master Plan, we probably need 10 El-Rufai’s to enforce it. Until we can create an environment that can attract high net worth individuals and businesses to locate to Anambra, the 2030 Vision will remain a dream.
Human Capital Development (Health and Education): Recall that more than 50 per cent of the population is below 18 years of age - children who constitute our bridge to the future. If we add the children and youths (0- 30 years), we probably have more than 65 per cent of the population. Education is the key to unlocking their future, and the time to strategize about the kind and quality of such education is now.
Physical Infrastructure (Transport & Power): Anambra has a small landmass and it is much easier to build and maintain all season roads in the entire state. With the ongoing dredging of River Niger, the second Niger bridge, and dualization of the Onitsha- Owerri Road, a strategic effort should be made (in collaboration with neighboring states and the Federal Government) to develop the ‘linkage’ roads to strategic locations; eg the West- East road; East- Abuja Road; Anambra-P/Harcourt- Warri roads, etc. We look forward to private power plants in the state. With the Public-Private Partnership in infrastructure law enacted by the National Assembly, it may be time to explore which infrastructure in the state should be concessioned to the private sector, or encouragement for the BOT, BOOT, etc. When would Anambra people expect the airport to be completed? This will open the state up for business and I believe it will be one of the busiest airports in Nigeria.
Institutional Development: There is now a consensus that for sustainable development, institutions matter. There are several areas for urgent institutional reforms and strengthening to ensure effective service delivery by the Government. I will mention just three of such:
• Public expenditure reforms to eliminate waste and corruption, ensure fiscal sustainability, transparency and accountability. Is it sustainable for the government to spend more than 50- 60 per cent of its budget on recurrent expenditure? What if the oil price falls drastically again? Is all public spending made public information and deliverables measured? How regularly do the people see audited accounts of various agencies?
• Public procurement reforms (Due process) to ensure value for money in public procurement
• Land Registration reforms - this could be a quick win as it will instantly generate revenue (without necessarily costing the government a kobo) and also release the large dormant capital in the state. Everyone should obtain a fresh Certificate of Occupancy, and people should be encouraged to obtain titles for their land. Currently, Anambra is one of the most expensive places to register and transfer titles on land and property (in terms of time and money spent). Can we set a national record by ensuring that titles are registered or changed within 48- 72 hours? )
• Sectoral Strategies?
We need to develop sectoral strategies for agriculture, industry, tourism, commerce, science and technology.
Creating Durable Partnerships: To succeed, the government of Anambra needs to build many bridges- among the people; with the Federal Government; with other state governments; the private sector; NGOs, the international community, labour, churches, town unions and communities. The traditional rulers also have important roles to play. Anambra has very strong town unions, and I believe that we are not yet fully utilizing the potential of these associations for development. I have often canvassed for a different kind of strategic partnership between the local government administrations and the town unions and traditional rulers to ensure that part of the local government financial allocations reach the communities. Developing Anambra should be a collective effort and the principle of subsidiarity should apply.
Mobilizing the People and Locking-in the Reforms: Reforms are painful to people initially. Also, some powerful interest groups will lose permanently. These people will not stand akimbo and watch: they will fight with everything they have. The people must therefore be informed and mobilized around the central aspects of the reforms. When the reforms are owned by the people, you can be confident of their sustainability.
Action: It is not enough to have a plan. Even an excellent plan can be messed up by poor leadership. God, please give us men and women who can see tomorrow, and grant them the courage to change the course of history.
Get Involved: Every society gets the kind of leadership and governance that it demands. Leaders do not necessarily provide ‘good’ leadership out of their benevolence or ‘kindness’ but more so because of the consequences of failure to do so. If you don’t demand good governance, you won’t have it. In my dream I see the Asians, the Europeans and Americans rushing to be part of the new miracle in Nigeria called Anambra. In my dream I can see the growth drivers as education, sound healthcare, technology, commerce, industry, agriculture and tourism. With the completion of the East-West road, the Second Niger Bridge, the East- South-South highways, I see in my dream Anambra as the hub, servicing most of the adjoining states in Southeast, South-South and the North. I can even see a private power plant in the state guaranteeing uninterrupted power supply. I can still see more: a people united, a people committed, a people involved in the collective enterprise of development. Before I woke up, I see a new state: looking very much like a combination of what I have seen at the Silicon valley in the USA, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, and Taiwan.
• Prof Soludo, CFR, was until May the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.
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